One sure thing in New York City politics right now is that Eric Adams won’t be mayor come January 1, 2026. Everything else is up for grabs. 

Adams has been indicted on federal corruption charges. Many members of his inner circle are under investigation or have resigned, or both. Dozens of New York elected officials have called on Adams to resign. 

“I do not see how Mayor Adams can continue governing New York City,” tweeted Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Queens). “The flood of resignations and vacancies are threatening gov function. Nonstop investigations will make it impossible to recruit and retain a qualified administration.”

Meanwhile, Adams is digging in. Speaking at a Bronx church on Sep. 30, he vowed to press on. “I’m going to reign,” he said. If Adams doesn’t step down, he could  be removed by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has thus far has demurred on the subject

Whether Adams can survive will have a huge impact on the outcome of next year’s mayoral race. 

If he leaves office by March 28, New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams will become acting mayor and must call an election within 90 days to fill the remainder of Adams’s term.

Next year’s regularly scheduled party primaries and general election to choose a new mayor would still go forward. But the winner of a special election would have an enormous advantage heading into the June 24 Democratic primary. 

If Adams leaves office after March 28, Williams becomes acting mayor and does not have to call a special election in advance of the June 24 Democratic primary. 

Here’s why that matters. 

A special election would be a non-partisan three-month sprint in which high name recognition would be crucial. Unlike party primaries, all voters, Democrat, Republican or other, would be eligible to vote in a single ranked-choice election. In this scenario, the median voter would be well to the right of the median voter in a Democratic primary. For former governor Andrew Cuomo, this scenario is like dangling a lamb chop in front of a wolf. 

Cuomo, who is still fuming over his forced resignation in August 2021, is reported to be lining up support in case Adams departs. In a special election, he could muster a coalition of Republicans and conservative Democrats that would not be possible in a primary. If he won the special election, he could wield the advantages of incumbency — fundraising, interest-group endorsements, the ability to drive media coverage — heading into the primary to determine the mayor for the following four years. Yikes! 

A Cuomo restoration could only succeed in a special election. Still, he would be far from a lock. Here are other strong contenders to replace Adams. 

Jumaane Williams
New York City’s public advocate would have been the frontrunner in the 2021 Democratic mayoral primary, if he had run.  He instead insisted he had no interest in the position. The following year he primaried Gov. Kathy Hochul and lost by more than 40 points. If he becomes acting mayor, Williams could mobilize a winning coalition of Black and white progressive voters. But if he finds himself in a tough, nasty race with someone like Andrew Cuomo, will he have the drive to do what it takes to win a job he previously disdained?

Letitia James
In 2018 James vaulted from public advocate to New York attorney general with an assist from then Gov. Cuomo. Three years later her devastating report on sexual harassment allegations by 11 women against Cuomo led to his resignation. Since then, James has successfully pursued headline-grabbing lawsuits against Donald Trump and the NRA. James, who also could unite a winning multi-racial progressive coalition, would be a more formidable  special-election candidate than Williams. But how badly does she want to leave her current perch?

Brad Lander
This Park Slope pol was elected as city comptroller in 2021. Likely sensing Adams’ weakness, he jumped into the mayor’s race in September. In the past, he has shown the ability to mobilize an ideologically broad coalition, from affluent normie libs to younger AOC left progressives. But in a city that is two-thirds people of color, it’s unclear how well he would perform as a mayoral candidate in predominantly Black and Latino districts. 

Jessica Ramos
The only woman currently running, this labor-friendly state senator from Queens would likely be drowned out in a special election. Conversely, she would benefit from extra time for grassroots campaigning that a wide-open primary race would provide. Ditto for lesser-known candidates such as State Senator Zellnor Myrie (D-Brooklyn) and Socialist Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani (D-Queens), who is likely to enter the race this fall. 

Kathryn Garcia
Bill de Blasio’s former Sanitation Commissioner lost by less than one point to Eric Adams in the 2021 mayoral election. She is now director of state operations for Gov. Kathy Hochul. For a consummate technocrat who was a plodding campaigner, Garcia may well be in her happy zone right where she is. But if the Cuomo revival falters, centrist Democrats might urge Garcia to enter the race as a safe and competent alternative to the corrupt and chaotic Adams. 

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